India Sugar Output 2025-26: ISMA Estimate

New Delhi, Sep 11 (PTI) India's sugar output is expected at 34.90 million tonne in the 2025-26 season starting in October, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) said on Thursday.

Overall, improved cane quality in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu is supporting a marginal rise in sugar output, ISMA said in a release.

However, these gains are likely to be offset by small declines in flood-hit regions, keeping the national output estimates outlook broadly stable, it said.

"Accordingly, ISMA has reaffirmed its projection of 349 lakh tonne of gross sugar production in 2025-26 SS, in line with its July 2025 estimate, signalling stability in output expectations despite regional variations," ISMA said while releasing a review on its preliminary estimates of sugar production in 2025-26 sugar season (October-September).

The industry body will reassess crop conditions in October 2025 and release its first advance estimate in October/November 2025.

ISMA had released its first preliminary estimate of gross sugar production for the 2025-26 sugar season on July 31, 2025, projecting 34.9 million tonne. The estimate was based on pan-India satellite imagery from the third week of June 2025, supported by field reports, and assuming normal monsoon conditions.

It said that the early estimates were intended to provide an initial directional outlook for the crop.

"A follow-up satellite imagery for Maharashtra and Karnataka was procured in the first week of September 2025 to reassess the crop condition, and based on this, ISMA has reviewed its preliminary estimate," it said.

The reassessment also incorporated prevailing ground conditions, monsoon progress, water availability, and other related factors for all the sugar producing states.

On Maharashtra and Karnataka, ISMA said favourable monsoon conditions, supported by abundant August rainfall in key regions, have ensured healthy crop growth and normal development.

With a positive outlook for the remainder of the southwest monsoon and the upcoming northeast monsoon, coupled with higher reservoir levels than last year, expectations of a strong crop have strengthened further.

Crop conditions are significantly better than last year in Uttar Pradesh, aided by mill-level cane development initiatives and timely varietal improvements. Low disease incidence is expected to translate into improved yields and higher recovery rates.

Regarding Tamil Nadu, it said the crop outlook remains promising, with both yield and recovery now projected to exceed earlier expectations.

On the other hand, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand are likely to see minor reductions in cane output due to localized flood-like conditions.

"However, outlook for remaining states aligns with our earlier estimates," ISMA said.

For the ongoing 2024-25 season (October-September), sugar production is estimated to be 26.10 million tonne, and the government has allowed exports of 1 million tonne of the sweetener.