India FY27 Growth Target Achievable: Deloitte Analysis

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Jan 29, 2026 19:48

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Deloitte says India''s FY27 GDP growth target is achievable but US FTA delay is a key risk. Analysis of Economic Survey.
India FY27 Growth Target Achievable: Deloitte Analysis
New Delhi, Jan 29 (PTI) While the Economic Survey's GDP growth projection of 6.8-7.2 per cent for FY27 is highly achievable given India's resilience, the pace of finalising a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US remains a critical risk factor that could derail growth, says Deloitte India Economist Rumki Majumdar.

Majumdar emphasised that while the Survey's targets are more ambitious than the projections made by multilateral agencies like the IMF and World Bank, the confidence is grounded in domestic momentum that has defied global uncertainty.

"I think it's very much feasible. It kind of shows the confidence India has on its growth momentum... Who could have ever thought that we would have 8 per cent growth in the first half of the fiscal year? It beat all expectations …The next year's fiscal growth is pegged at 6.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent. Clearly, there is a lot of confidence that growth is resilient and is expected to remain so, and India is becoming structurally self-propelled via domestic demand, public capex and reform compounding, even as external buffers are prioritised," Majumdar said.

She noted that this resilience was "not by chance," but the result of concerted government efforts, including tax reforms, easing of the monetary policy stance, and the introduction of reforms like the Labour Codes.

Despite the optimism, Majumdar flagged the timing of the India-US FTA as a significant headwind.

"I think one of the biggest risks would be how quickly India can sign the FTA with the US. While it's good that India is diversifying... the US remains our largest trading partner," she observed.

She highlighted India's heavy dependence on the US for services exports, noting that services account for almost 55-56 per cent of the country's GDP.


"Now if anything happens on that sector, it can really derail our growth projections," she cautioned.

Furthermore, Majumdar pointed to a clear disconnect between the rupee's valuation and India's economic fundamentals. She noted that while the Current Account Deficit is low, inflation is at an all-time low, and the fiscal deficit has been brought down to 4.4 per cent, the currency continues to depreciate.

She attributed this partly to Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows affecting sentiment.

She also warned that currency depreciation poses a risk to the benefits derived from trade agreements.

"Just think about the fact that we are giving away a lot of tariffs on cars, on the wines that we are importing... But if our currency is depreciating by 20 per cent in a year, then all those gains are wiped off," Majumdar explained.

On the Economic Survey's push for 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' and self-reliance, Majumdar argued that in critical and strategic sectors, India cannot afford to be dependent on other countries.

"If we are moving up the technology ladder, if we are adopting AI, we cannot be dependent for critical digital infrastructure on the West. Because you never know when things could get unplugged," she said, advocating for self-sufficiency in energy, semiconductors, data centres, and defence. PTI ANK ANK ANU

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