India Growth Rebound in 3-6 Months if Conflicts Ease: ICICI

Mumbai, Jun 8 (PTI) India's economic growth is likely to regain momentum if the ongoing geopolitical conflicts ease over the next three to six months, a senior executive of the asset management industry said on Monday.

"I think the economy is rightly shaped. What you need to look at is you have to make a judgment whether the war continues for a longer period of time or it's going to stop at some point in time, maybe 3 months or 6 months.

"In my perspective, over the next 3-6 months, if we generally protect the balance sheets of the households and corporates...growth is going to come back," said Manish Banthia, chief investment officer - fixed income - at ICICI Prudential AMC.

Speaking at an ICICI Securities India Investors Conference 2026, Banthia said overall, balance sheets in India are in a great shape today, noting that corporate balance sheets are among the strongest seen in recent years, while households are also very decently placed, and the government has undertaken fiscal consolidation over the last three years.

According to Banthia, healthy balance sheets enable the economy to withstand adverse external developments, including the recent surge in crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions.

"Some of these shocks, when you have good balance sheets, can be absorbed by the system," he said.


While concerns around higher oil prices have weighed on investor sentiment, the actual impact on consumers has remained limited, he noted.

"If you look at the impact on the common man, largely it has been contained. The pump prices have just gone up by Rs 8-9, and that's nothing material in terms of the impact," he said.

He said the key variable for the economy would be the duration of the ongoing global conflict and whether it persists for an extended period.

"What you need to look at is whether the war continues for a long period of time or it's going to stop at some point in time, maybe three months or six months," he said.

Expressing optimism on the medium-term outlook, he said growth could rebound if policymakers and businesses are able to protect balance sheets during the current period of uncertainty.

He also noted that last year's economic slowdown was rightly tackled by the policymakers and was followed by a strong recovery, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the Indian economy.