WTO: Global Trade Growth Forecast '25, Tariffs Impact

New Delhi, Aug 8 (PTI) The global merchandise trade is expected to grow 0.9 per cent this year due to frontloading of imports in the US due to sweeping tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, according to the WTO forecast.

It said higher tariffs will weigh on trade and it will bring next year's expected trade volume growth down to 1.8 percent from 2.5 percent projected earlier.

"World merchandise trade is now projected to grow 0.9 per cent in 2025, up from the -0.2 per cent contraction forecasted in April but down from the 2.7 per cent estimate pre-dating the tariff increases," it said.

The slight increase in the projection augur well for India.


India's exports remained flat at USD 35.14 billion in June due to global economic uncertainties, while trade deficit narrowed to a four-month low of USD 18.78 billion during the month.

World Trade Organisation (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains.

"Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment," she said.

It added that Asian economies are projected to remain the largest positive driver of world merchandise trade volume growth in 2025, although their contribution in 2026 will be smaller than predicted in April.

North America will weigh negatively on global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, it added.