Airline Supply Chain Woes: IATA Forecast & Impact

Geneva, Dec 9 (PTI) The supply chain woes for the airline industry are likely to persist for up to eight more years, as there is already a delivery shortfall of at least 5,300 aircraft, and costs for airlines are also escalating, according to industry grouping IATA.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh, who has been vocal that engine manufacturers make huge margins whereas airlines operate with thin margins, on Tuesday said airlines are also evaluating legal opportunities with respect to supply chain issues, which have been significantly impacting the industry for the past few years.

In a reflection of how severe the supply chain situation is, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that if an airline orders an aircraft today, it will take around 6.8 years to get the aircraft delivered, and the backlog of aircraft orders is over 17,000.

IATA represents around 360 airlines that account for over 80 per cent of the global air traffic.

Deliveries of new planes have started to pick up in late 2025, and aircraft production is expected to accelerate in 2026, but demand outstrips the availability of aircraft and engines.

"The normalisation of the structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity is unlikely before 2031-2034 due to irreversible losses on deliveries over the past five years and a record-high order backlog," IATA said on Tuesday.

While the shortfall in delivery of planes is now at least 5,300, the aircraft order backlog is over 17,000 aircraft, which is equal to almost 60 per cent of the active fleet.

Historically, this ratio was steady at around 30-40 per cent. This backlog is equivalent to nearly 12 years of the current production capacity, IATA said.

The average fleet size is now 15.1 years -- 12.8 years for aircraft in the passenger fleet, 19.6 years for cargo aircraft, and 14.5 years for the wide-body fleet.

More than 5,000 aircraft are in storage, mainly due to the lack of availability of parts, engines and seats.

There are engine production issues, longer time for aircraft certification, tariffs and shortage of skilled labour, especially in engine and component manufacturing segments, which are among the key challenges.

"Tariffs on metals and electronics resulting from US-China trade tensions have worsened some supply bottlenecks and raised some maintenance costs," IATA said.

According to Walsh, it is going to take much longer to address the supply chain issues than anticipated.

Mentioning the huge margins made by engine makers GE Aerospace and Safran, Walsh said, "these guys have been using supply chain disruption to increase their prices to the airline industry".

"... they're making massive margins at the same time as imposing huge additional costs on the airline industry. This is unacceptable, and it has got to stop. And that's why we have got to challenge these guys," the IATA DG said.

A recent study by IATA and consultancy Oliver Wyman estimated that supply chain bottlenecks are expected to cost the global airline industry more than USD 11 billion this year, driven by four factors -- excess fuel costs, additional maintenance expenses, increased engine leasing costs and surplus inventory holding expenses.