Gold Price Forecast: US Data & Fed Meeting Impact

New Delhi, Nov 23 (PTI) Gold prices are expected to stay range-bound in the near term as investors await a series of key US economic data releases, including GDP and inflation, and signals from the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting for clarity on interest rate trajectory, analysts said.

The focus will be on economic numbers such as weekly jobless claims, consumer confidence and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which are expected to offer further clues on the Fed's rate trajectory, they added.

"Gold prices may continue to see some consolidation (as focus remains) on the US data ahead of the Fed's December policy meeting... Key events tracked would be US housing data, consumer confidence, weekly jobless claims, GDP, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December contract increased by Rs 630, or 0.51 per cent, over the past week.

Mer said the yellow metal witnessed extreme volatility last week, with price swings on both sides weighed by hawkish Fed official commentary, fading hope of a rate cut at the Fed's December meeting, and a stronger greenback.

"The possibility of an end to Russia-Ukraine war trimmed some risk premium from bullion. On the other side, prices were supported by central bank buying with China adding gold for the 12th straight month and dumping US treasuries along with ETF inflows and injecting liquidity from major central banks," he added.

In the international markets, Comex gold futures rose USD 51.4, or 1.25 per cent, during the week.

"Comex gold futures closed marginally higher, but the stronger dollar kept sentiment capped," Pankaj Singh, Investment Manager on smallcase and Founder & Principal Researcher SmartWealth.ai, said.

The minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting signalled that policymakers may keep rates elevated through 2025, slashing December rate-cut odds to 36 per cent.

"Thin liquidity around the US Thanksgiving holiday on November 27 may heighten volatility. Firm US yields and hawkish Fed expectations could push gold toward USD 3,950 per ounce level support in the near term," he said.

Riya Singh, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services, said, gold's vulnerability stems from its typical underperformance in a high-rate or delayed-easing environment, and the metal has pulled back modestly after touching a record high in October.

"Still, it remains up roughly 55 per cent for the year, supported by two earlier rate cuts, robust central-bank accumulation, and sustained inflows into bullion-backed ETFs," she said.

Singh added that the latest leg of the rally has reflected the so-called debasement trade, as investors are shifting out of sovereign debt as fiscal risks grow across major economies.

The medium-term structure for bullion remains constructive, with expectations for policy easing in 2026, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and strong official-sector demand continuing to anchor the broader uptrend," she noted.

On the MCX, silver futures for December delivery declined Rs 1,867, or 1.12 per cent, in the past week. In the international markets, Comex silver futures fell 1.52 per cent.

According to Pranav Mer of JM Financial Services, silver turned volatile with initial dip seen along with industrial metals.

"On the technical front, the momentum looks sideways/corrective with resistances at Rs 1,56,700/ 1,59,200 per kilogram, while on the downside support holds at Rs 1,49,500. A fall below this could trigger further correction towards Rs 1.39-1.40 lakh per kg levels," he added.

With the Fed expected to maintain its cautious stance into early 2025 and the dollar staying firm, analysts believe gold could trade in a broader range in the near term, supported by safe-haven interest but capped by monetary policy uncertainty.