Stock Market Outlook: Global Factors, Macro Data to Drive Trading

New Delhi, Nov 26 (PTI) Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends and macroeconomic data announcements in a holiday-shortened week which may see volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, say analysts.

Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Gurunanak Jayanti.

Trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be tracked by investors.

"While global cues are relatively muted, market participants will closely monitor movements in crude oil prices, US bond yields, and the dollar index," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

From the domestic macroeconomic front, the GDP data for the July-September quarter will be released on Thursday and the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Friday.

Auto companies would remain in the limelight amid monthly sales data announcements.

"Markets will focus on the global and domestic macroeconomic data. Auto stocks will be in focus as companies will start announcing monthly sales numbers for November starting from December 1. “On the macro front, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (July-September) will be released on November 30. The infrastructure output data for October will be released on the same day.

"The market will take further cues from US GDP data, crude oil inventories, US PMI data and Eurozone core CPI data," Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services Ltd, said.

Last week, the BSE benchmark climbed 175.31 points or 0.26 per cent, and the Nifty advanced 62.9 points or 0.31 per cent.

The markets were largely quiet in the past week, with no significant changes in the headline indices, Meena said.

"There are some important developments that might influence FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investors) inflows into India. The better-than-expected decline in inflation in the US has given the market confidence to assume that the Fed is done with rate hike.

"Consequently the US bond yields have declined sharply with the 10-year benchmark bond yield correcting from 5% in mid October to 4.40% now. This has forced the FIIs to slow down their selling. Importantly, they were buyers on four days this month with a big buying of Rs 2,625 crore on Friday," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.