WTO Raises Trade Growth Forecast to 2.7% for 2024

New Delhi, Oct 10 (PTI) The World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Thursday revised the forecast for global trade growth marginally upwards to 2.7 per cent for 2024 though it said that rising geopolitical tensions continue to pose substantial downside risks.

In April, the WTO projected 2.6 per cent in global trade for this year.

However, the Geneva-based 166-member multi-lateral body slashed the forecast for 2025 to 3 per cent from 3.3 per cent earlier.

In its Global Trade Outlook, WTO cautioned that rising geopolitical tensions and increased economic policy uncertainty continue to pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.

"Global goods trade is projected to post a 2.7 per cent increase in 2024, up slightly from the previous estimate of 2.6 per cent," it said.

As per the report, Asia saw a strong export rebound in the first half of the year driven by key manufacturing economies such as China, Singapore and Korea.

It added that while China's growth remains modest, other economies such as Singapore, Malaysia, India and Viet Nam are surging.

"This shift suggests their emerging role as connecting economies, trading across geopolitical blocs, thereby potentially mitigating the risk of fragmentation," it said.

Services trade has a more favourable outlook compared to goods according to leading indicators, it said.

Further, the report said that in European imports, the largest contraction was in machinery, with a substantial reduction in imports from China.

India's exports during April-August this fiscal increased 1.14 per cent to USD 178.68 billion, and imports grew 7 per cent to USD 295.32 billion.

Merchandise trade deficit during April-August 2024 was USD 116.64 billion compared to USD 99.16 billion during April-August 2023.