India's GDP Grows 7.6% in Q2: Private Capex Gains Steam

New Delhi, Nov 30 (PTI) The second quarter GDP numbers driven by a strong rebound in the manufacturing sector suggest that private capex spending is gaining steam, experts said.

India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal and remained the fastest-growing large economy, mainly due to better performance by manufacturing, mining and services sectors, the government data showed on Thursday.

The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 6.2 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2022-23.

India remained the fastest-growing major economy, as China posted a 4.9 per cent growth in July-September 2023.

The GVA (Gross Value Added) in the manufacturing sector showed a growth of 13.9 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal compared to a contraction of 3.8 per cent in the year-ago period.

The double-digit growth in the industry sector, especially in manufacturing and construction, is suggesting that businesses ramped up production to meet the pent-up demand just before the festivals, said Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India.

"Investment data also points to the fact that private capex spending is gaining steam -- government capex is now crowding in private spending in households and corporates," Majumdar added.

Commenting on the data, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Icra, said the surprise was largely led by the manufacturing sector, with growth surging to a nine-quarter high of 13.9 per cent from 4.7 per cent in the first quarter, led by a favourable base, an uptick in volume growth and an improvement in profit margins owing to continued deflation in input prices.

"Looking ahead, we project GDP growth to moderate significantly in H2 FY2024, with the continuing headwinds such as the normalising base, weak outlook for agri output and rural demand, tepid global growth, narrowing differentials in commodity prices and transmission of past monetary tightening," she said.

Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, in Q2 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 71.66 lakh crore against Rs 65.67 lakh crore in Q2 2022-23, showing a growth of 9.1 per cent as compared to 17.2 per cent in Q2 2022-23, said the National Statistical Office (NSO) data.

Puneet Kaura, Chairman, CII Delhi State Council and Samtel Avionics MD and CEO, opined that GDP growth numbers reflect the underlying strength and strong fundamentals of the Indian economy.

"We expect the momentum to continue even in the third and fourth quarter as both public and private expenditure is showing signs of pick up. We are hopeful that various segments, including agriculture, manufacturing, and services, will register strong performance going forward," he said.

Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank, said the sharp upside surprise to the second quarter GDP figures is a welcome sign, especially as it comes in the backdrop of a broad-based pickup across most non-agricultural sectors.

"We, however, expect the 2H growth to moderate. Having said that the full-year GDP numbers have got a big fillip after today's figures," Bhardwaj added.


Nilanjan Banik, Economist, Mahindra University, was of the opinion that the convergence of Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, and mobile (JAM) has revolutionised access to services and economic opportunities.

"Just as physical infrastructure reduces the cost of doing business, digital public infrastructure has democratised access to opportunities, removing barriers and promoting inclusivity," Banik said.

Added to this is the government's push for building physical infrastructure and bringing the unbanked population into the realm of formal sector banking, Banik said, adding that all these activities are culminating in robust economic growth.

The GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in April-September 2023-24 (H1 2023-24) is estimated at Rs 82.11 lakh crore against Rs 76.22 lakh crore during the corresponding period of the previous year, showing a growth of 7.7 per cent in H1 2023-24 compared to 9.5 per cent in H1 2022-23, it said.

GDP at current prices in H1 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 142.33 lakh crore compared to Rs 131.09 lakh crore during the corresponding period of the previous year, showing a growth of 8.6 per cent in H1 2023-24 against 22.2 per cent in H1 2022-23.