India's Growth to Lead G20 in 2025-26: Moody's

New Delhi, Apr 1 (PTI) Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said India's growth at 6.5 per cent this fiscal will remain the highest amongst the advanced and emerging G-20 countries, supported by tax measures and continued monetary easing, and the country will continue to attract capital and withstand any cross-border outflow.

In its report on emerging markets, Moody's said such economies are "exposed to choppy waters" from the churn of US policies and its potential to reshape global capital flows, supply chains, trade and geopolitics. Large EMs (emerging markets) have resources to navigate the turbulence.

It said economic activity in the fastest-growing economies will slow slightly from high levels but remain strong this year and next. In China, exports and investment in infrastructure and priority high-tech sectors remain the main growth drivers, while domestic consumption remains weak.

"India's growth will remain the highest of the advanced and emerging G-20 countries, supported by tax measures and continued (monetary) easing," Moody's said, while projecting at a 6.5 per cent growth for 2025-26 fiscal, down from 6.7 per cent in 2024-25.

It projected inflation to average 4.5 per cent in the current fiscal (April-March), from 4.9 per cent in the last fiscal.

The government in the Budget for the 2025-26 fiscal year has hiked I-T rebate to Rs 12 lakh from Rs 7 lakh, which gave tax relief of Rs 1 lakh crore to the middle class.

Besides, the RBI in February had cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent. It is widely expected that the Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) will cut rates again in its monetary policy review on April 9.

Moody's said the uncertainty in US policies would increase the risk of capital outflows but large emerging markets, such as India and Brazil, are better positioned to attract and retain global capital in risk-averse conditions because of their large and domestically oriented economies, deep domestic capital markets, moderate policy credibility and substantial foreign exchange reserves.

"These attributes provide buffers against external financial pressures and, as a result, give investors confidence. India has a low external vulnerability indicator of 61 per cent, indicating its relatively lower susceptibility to external financial shocks," Moody's said.

It further said that India has a higher proportion of domestic currency-denominated external debt and hence is better insulated from exchange rate risks.

Moody's further said that emerging market growth will slow in the aggregate in 2025-26 but remain solid, with wide variation by country. Growth will remain highest in Asia-Pacific, but the region's integration in global trade means it is most exposed to US tariffs and their potential to slow growth.

"Large, diversified and domestically driven EM economies such as India and Brazil are more equipped than smaller peers to continue attracting capital and withstand any cross-border outflows. These two economies also have deep domestic capital markets and low external vulnerability indicators," Moody's said.

By contrast, smaller and more open economies are more exposed to fluctuations in investor sentiment and currency volatility, as are economies with a large share of debt denominated in foreign currency, such as Argentina and Colombia, Moody's added.